Thursday, February 01, 2007

Super Bowl Prop Bet Roundup, Part 2 - Bears Props/Game Props

Sorry. For some reason, I haven't been able to log in for a couple of days. Now, without further ado...


I know. I can't believe I'm betting on him, either.

BEARS PROPS

There aren't that many Bears props that I like, but I'll take a few.

Rex Grossman first throw - Incompletion or INT (+110) - This goes without saying.

Thomas Jones rushing attempts over 17.5 - Again, this is self-explanatory, given my theory on how this game will play out.

Bernard Berrian longest reception over 21.5 yards (-130) - Even with the horrible vig, I think the Bears hit at least one pass for over 25, and it will go to Berrian...

Dez Clark longest reception under 16.5 - ...and not Dez Clark.

Dez Clark yards on first reception - under 10.5 - Does anyone else see a 5-yard out route on third and 4 here?

Robbie Gould total points over 7 - Cash money in the bank for a team that can't seem to finish a drive. Add in some conservative playcalling and this is a gimmie.



GAME PROPS

Coin Toss - Heads - My favorite bet of the year. And last year, tails was even money with heads at -120. I still haven't figured that out.

Who will receive first kickoff - Bears - This is a hunch.

Will either team score three consecutive times without the other team scoring? No (Even) - Remember, conversions are excluded. I always take this, and I almost always lose this.

First score of the game will be...non-touchdown (+115) - Field goals. Lots and lots of field goals.

Bad puns by Jim Nantz - over 4.5 - God, I wish this was available.

Longest FG - over 44.5 yards - Gould from 52. I guarantee it.

Total FGs for both teams - over 3.5 - Again, lots and lots of field goals.

Will there be a defensive/special teams touchdown? Yes (+135) - With the Bears prominently involved, along with Playoff Peyton Manning and Sexy Rexy in his usual form, this is a good line.

THE GAME - Colts (-7) vs. Bears

I've made one observation about NFL "strength-vs.-strength" games. While Tom Jackson is focusing on the Colts offense vs. the Ravens defense or the Saints offense vs. the Bears defense - and Mike Irvin talks about T.O. - you should focus on the other side of the ball. That, my friends, is where the money is.

So, while the Worldwide Leader dwells on Peyton Manning vs. Brian Urlacher, you should be looking at Thomas Jones vs. Dwight Freeney. And I think we all know that Thomas Jones wins that battle (even with Bob Sanders, if he's playing). The Bears keep it on the ground, with success, and Grossman has just enough to keep them honest. The clock runs right along with the Bears, limiting chances for the Colts. In the end, while I think the Colts win this game, the Bears and seven points are way too much. Colts 27-Bears 24

Good luck and happy hunting.

34 comments:

Anonymous said...

Pat,
Do you have Matt Olsen's contact info? A friend of mine from high school wants it. You can put it on the fantasy football messag board or email me.
Craig

Irish Hawk said...

Took 3 legit bets and a $5 "if it hits it will be great but I don't expect it to" parlay.

Loved your Hunter the Punter touchback suggestion - took it and won.

I hit on the under but just barely.

Lost the other suggestion of yours that I liked when Chicago decided to focus on Dallas Clark and give up the pass to the RB. Oh well - as Meatloaf says - 2 out of 3 ain't bad.

HawkeyeState said...

Craig, I don't have your email, and the football board is gone.

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