Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Super Bowl Prop Bet Roundup, Part One - Colts Props

The third-best day of the year to be a gambler is only five days away. Giddy up.

(By the way, with the recent withdrawal of Pinnacle Sports from the US market - damn you, Jim Leach - I'll be using lines from Bodog. This should not be construed as support for Bodog. I'd never take their crappy 20% vig on props. I'll also be giving you the line from Sportsbook.com if the difference is significant.)

Go ahead. Bet against 6'4" quarterbacks with rocket arms.
Better yet, bet on that quarterback's ability to get 2 yards running.

  • Peyton Manning total rushing yards over 1.5 (+105) [Sportsbook] - Remember, sacks don't go towards rushing totals in the National Football League. Dungy - oh, who are we kidding - Manning has shown a greater propensity to call for the run at the goal line this year. Plus, I'll take the chance that he scrambles at least once, especially with reverse juice.
  • Peyton Manning total touchdown passes + interceptions over 3 [Bodog] - This feels very pushy, but it will go high before it goes low. Remember, Cut That Meat has been a little picky-happy in the playoffs.
  • Joseph Addai total rushing yards under 65.5; Dominic Rhodes total rushing yards under 47.5 [Sportsbook & Bodog] - There's absolutely no way the Colts are going for 115 yards against the Bears defense. So take them both; at least one will win.
  • Starvin' Marvin Harrison receiving yards under 78.5 (even) [Sportsbook] - Marvin has gone for 48, 45, and 41 yards in the Colts' playoff games this year. I'll take those odds.
  • Reggie Wayne receiving yards under 76.5 [Bodog] - Again, the Colts have gone away from the receivers in the playoffs, in whay appears to be an attempt to limit interceptions thrown to corners. Wayne has had playoff receiving totals of 36, 51, and 68 yards. But if Harrison and Wayne don't get the yards, who will?
  • Dallas Clark receptions over 3.5, receiving yards over 50.5 [Sportsbook & Bodog] - Oh, yeah. Dallas Clark. Two things: Clark has been HUGE in the playoffs (as all former Hawkeyes are), going for 103 against the Chiefs and 137 against the Pats. Second, this is where teams have attacked Chicago all season, keeping the ball away from Tillman and Manning in favor of attacking linebackers in coverage. Clark should shatter these numbers.
  • Will a Hunter Smith Punt result in a touchback? Yes (+210) [Sportsbook] - He's only had five touchbacks all season. But more than 2:1 odds in a game where the Colts might take a touchback to keep the ball away from Hester? I'll take that bet.
I also like Dwight Freeney tackles + sacks + picks over 3.5 at Bodog and Bob Sanders tackles over 6.5 at Sportsbook. I think the obvious offensive strategy for the Bears would be keep-away, meaning a lot of tackles on runs and short passes for Bobby (plus, former Hawkeye in the playoffs).

Tomorrow, Bears props.


Irish Hawk said...

What site are you using? Can I still put money in at Sportsbook?

Anonymous said...

Pat, buddy... 1-800-Bets Off

HawkeyeState said...

I'm using sportsbook now, though I'm less than enthused with that option. I head BetJamaica has lower juice.