Friday, October 13, 2006

You Don't Need Double Talk...

...You need football picks.

"Why should you go to jail for a crime someone else noticed?"

So, after successfully making a run at some college games last week, I'm jumping back into the game. I've got four college games to choose from:

Purdue (-7.5) at Northwestern
The Boilermakers got punished last week in Iowa's early October resurrection. But Purdue is much better than they looked last week, and Northwestern is exactly as bad as you think (1-4 ATS, and the loss to 1-AA New Hampshire was not available for wagering purposes). I liked this line more at 7, but anything in single digits should be covered handily by a team that spent the week running wind sprints and Oklahoma drills and hoping Joe Tiller didn't swallow them whole.

Mizzou (-1.5) at Texas A&M
This line makes no sense. Mizzou has been crushing teams and will continue to do so against A&M, the closest thing the Big XII has to Michigan State. The Tigers are 4-1 ATS this season. A&M needs to run the ball to win, and they won't be able to do that against Mizzou's front 7. Speaking of Michigan State...

THE Ohio State University (-14) at Michigan State
Forget that tOSU had pushed or beaten the spread 12 straight times until last week's classic letdown game against BGSU. Forget that tOSU has covered against Michigan State in each of the last three seasons. Forget that Michigan State has unofficially forfeited every game left on their schedule. Just take a deep breath and let your decision come down to this one simple question: Who would you rather have your money on? This guy...

Or this guy?

That's what I thought.

Wisky (-8) vs. Minny
Badger alert, people. This team is much, MUCH better than anyone thinks. Bielema has settled in much better than anyone could have expected. Wisky is 4-0-1 ATS so far and - get this - a whopping 11-2 ATS at Camp Randall over the last 3 years. Throw in an especially hostile home crowd (Wisky hates Minny almost as much as Iowa hates Minny), a truly sorry Gopher squad, and the fact that there's still no "D" in "Minnesota" (to the tune of almost 400 ypg allowed) and this is going to get ugly fast.

I'll be home for the Iowa game, watching the Hawkeyes in beautiful HDTV for the first time, so I'll have plenty of time for in-game updates, discussions of Iowa basketball media day, and assorted other topics as I prepare my assault on Vegas. Until then, Go Hawks.


Kevin Brown said...

No comment on the Oklahoma - Ia St. line? Isn't the "always wager against Iowa State when playing against a runningback whose dad just got out of prison and is bringing his nine kids to the game" in effect here?

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